Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.3 miles North-West of Wonder Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles North-West of Wonder Valley
34.3483°N, 116.0084°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 22:14:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4ecadf31c94ac15aa15f4972c635c6c98468f830888fc18d1f71911afa18ff4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.35--116.01-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 16:26:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_065823_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 16:26:20.565248+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.