Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.1 miles North-East of Landers
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.1 miles North-East of Landers
34.3468°N, 116.2380°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 02:26:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
135.6 km
35.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
1ba95c389bf90d504c62f5a9af730338aa6a152ee9a777e315da45999a3d78e0
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.35--116.24-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 21:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260815_121424_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 21:45:38.723828+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.