Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
8.5 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.5 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3547°N, 116.8472°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 03:01:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0fd4c0e3c7a0a2cf4dd456323d9e5dfc1f057ee4933f6b2813b6040f17078443
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.35--116.85-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 09:27:33.418496+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.