Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3471°N, 116.8679°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 11:49:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
136.7 km
36.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b63f09f86a7eb9db266a45f14a004d0f06dd401bab196e07395c8c23da2d618c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.35--116.87-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 04:38:43 PST
Source Batch
20260803_190534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 01:02:37.146514+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.