Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
5.5 miles North-East of Ventura
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-East of Ventura
34.3482°N, 119.1901°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 22:28:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cc8b95fb9673c1c5a38af181db053b07ae4745f57c6575d33a4aaab3f4422a50
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.35--119.19-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 15:42:07 PST
Source Batch
20260811_061206_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 15:42:08.462036+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.