Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
12.1 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3606°N, 116.7540°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 21:04:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
06663eec60f3ee96cf124f0b9ff6dc6c2a48248f1a31abf798cf38d217ad5594
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.75-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 03:42:32 PST
Source Batch
20260809_180953_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 20:23:58.874806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.