Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.7 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.7 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3607°N, 116.8562°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 13:53:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
4.0 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6ded159c65ef5a80fe2430f7a603058a0df2a0d09b9e303091b8a838fe9e5830
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.86-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 13:08:18 PST
Source Batch
20260807_033527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 13:08:19.902921+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.