Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.1 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3588°N, 116.8865°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 18:31:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
32h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43ec374b6ba9c9bc7cc1472c5c50971c0a647e02081599921ec539fecb1bc276
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.89-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_001513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 09:33:13.536511+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.