Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.0 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3586°N, 116.8884°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 02:25:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.2 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
58fbebc041a8f026fbcb3a0ce5c55dd25c8b531bcedb513678ac276e515ef1f4
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.89-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 16, 2026 04:50:33 PST
Source Batch
20260815_191807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-16 04:50:35.845122+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.