Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.8 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.8 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3570°N, 116.9046°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 15:19:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8c7ddb69e96bb1f43f9a1a795d7ba9a6e986100bd27c624f1515b7f12bd7c15
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.90-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 05:51:50 PST
Source Batch
20260811_202125_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 12:10:52.900230+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.