Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.8 miles South of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles South of Lucerne Valley
34.3640°N, 116.9564°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 01:32:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
85.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f5258c11250361ab5b210f345ffb0d0df841592e1837937addf5309ffee51ac0
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--116.96-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 18:17:17 PST
Source Batch
20260815_084433_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 18:20:08.699957+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-16 01:32:23.338000+00:00
2026-08-16T01:32:23.338
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 18:17:17.427770+00:00
2026-08-15T21:45:37.215528+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"