Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
2.3 miles South-West of Summit Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles South-West of Summit Valley
34.3624°N, 117.4479°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 14:28:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
18.6 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 14.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
67a6316cbb9b325a3dfbe7ba4b5f1578392782b19fd1e0bdd0e1fc9f98c4c6e9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--117.45-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.