Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
6.2 miles North-East of Ventura
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles North-East of Ventura
34.3564°N, 119.1852°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 06:31:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
50.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.4 h
2.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2fa9c09be0c466c664a42a3d0af988e637fc63ba0b906a22894b54104159889d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--119.19-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 13:06:15 PST
Source Batch
20260809_033314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 13:06:16.783992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.