Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
5.8 miles South of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles South of Ojai
34.3641°N, 119.2319°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 18:10:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e04aefc91c27a8416e2620ae9b64b72d0e0e4497fe7d5a33e8001bcf66765616
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.36--119.23-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 12:55:39 PST
Source Batch
20260812_032428_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 12:55:40.279427+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.