Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
25.1 miles South of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.1 miles South of Essex
34.3736°N, 115.2598°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 15:36:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
107.4 km
7.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
db3154dc18cf8c779e32150cc6514d2b1b5fed04196851bb74207e60a81bcf76
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.37--115.26-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 23:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260730_135626_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 23:18:00.557176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.