Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.2 miles South of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.2 miles South of Lucerne Valley
34.3740°N, 116.9922°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 07:02:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e82c29d20a4a3d0e6a0a7be082dbdd0fb91b390a0bf27fa06fc1928012c639f3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.37--116.99-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 20:05:30 PST
Source Batch
20260812_102545_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 20:05:31.424703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.