Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
5.7 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Ojai
34.3729°N, 119.2023°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 02:25:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
10ba40bd11e024d4c7ff0a84df6d2791e789d755666aaf3bbeae91a3b49b0e62
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.37--119.20-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 07:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260813_215259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 07:25:42.204268+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.