Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.4 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
34.3797°N, 116.9077°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 09:52:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
82603bbd89716df85ee00448755ab0d5cb53f283b4bdfb23cb4b218e79862bdd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.38--116.91-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 23:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260730_135626_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 23:18:00.557176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.