Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.3 miles South of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles South of Lucerne Valley
34.3800°N, 116.9152°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 09:52:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6a6fddd5ea1ed5ea6604c8c4f0a429be74ea5a1581b8edfa188fb30c84bec19c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.38--116.92-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 02:45:17 PST
Source Batch
20260730_172339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.