Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
2.9 miles East of Summit Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles East of Summit Valley
34.3783°N, 117.3670°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 20:19:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
70.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
86ae68cfacf10d026473b6bf76672c7bfb524ee84ddc81c1582ba2e71bf28232
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.38--117.37-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260814_115241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-14 20:19:47.663000+00:00 2026-08-14T23:57:51.828
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T17:54:21.395398+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-14 20:19:47.663000+00:00 2026-08-14T23:57:51.828
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T21:25:42.305625+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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