Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.9 miles South-East of Acton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.9 miles South-East of Acton
34.3805°N, 118.0837°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 10:01:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f0ef23ba00dbc4b5289664cc0f3b7b8f62e685e4c6d4e57f3eb2cb27fd70224f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.38--118.08-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 20:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260813_111912_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 20:52:25.733806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.