Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
14.8 miles North-West of Wonder Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.8 miles North-West of Wonder Valley
34.4033°N, 116.0210°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 23:00:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
14.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a3b7a82eed86c4f484e5817acca246b9f4c49a16cd71312692d25e18949bfb78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.40--116.02-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 19:34:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_101611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 16:14:02.656277+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.