Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.8 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
34.4012°N, 116.8125°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 06:00:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
87c8a4ff2404317a48828a3424ef16a6891da1272ad05c64074f69f471de7026
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.40--116.81-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 03:55:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_182203_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 00:23:30.495153+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.