Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.2 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
34.3978°N, 116.8288°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 08:11:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
252b247343ced4d926e22d4e72918fbf5e196b58252014de1c3e4984e4943cc2
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.40--116.83-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 04:22:16 PST
Source Batch
20260814_185123_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 04:22:17.835354+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.