Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.6 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
34.3967°N, 116.8992°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 16:36:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d76874dcb9eab7fd8db7070a5e7c4e9f295f36e30c87c4401189f364ebfdd5fc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.40--116.90-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 03:10:58 PST
Source Batch
20260812_173757_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 03:11:14.505121+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.