Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.9 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4040°N, 119.2000°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 21:00:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6022d2bcdc82568bce04d09ab5a20af4100582677fcc82e4f59309cedbf6659a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.40--119.20-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 08:36:38 PST
Source Batch
20260810_230341_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 08:36:39.656762+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.