Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.5 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles South-East of Lucerne Valley
34.4166°N, 116.8984°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 17:31:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
46.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
41.7 h
5.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 10.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6c021d1f4afbf02527075d098596bb7724a2ebf8bb413db0d20afada1b599568
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--116.90-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.