Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.8 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.8 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4245°N, 119.1829°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 17:33:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
161.7 km
61.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
44e912278af2487f65fa1b5d41e27db57a2900b1e9ef1edb1a84aa7b80d31c17
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--119.18-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 01:02:36 PST
Source Batch
20260803_152902_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 01:02:37.146514+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.