Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.6 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4160°N, 119.1937°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 19:34:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
55.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.6 h
2.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 14.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
38767b7a43afe343b1fdc1f591f30308408b15f70b3fd6ff3b3ba1e1476b4a3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--119.19-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 07:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260813_215259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 07:25:42.204268+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.