Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.4 miles South-East of Montecito
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.4 miles South-East of Montecito
34.4185°N, 119.6185°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 05:26:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d57d5f8e5474d233b70365d4fc4de99fbe714837a70477354a20c52a5844530b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--119.62-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 23:37:40 PST
Source Batch
20260812_140550_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 23:37:41.763466+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.