Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
1.3 miles East of Santa Barbara
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles East of Santa Barbara
34.4178°N, 119.6761°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 10:28:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d46a1664233593933ac384ac32f91517ee5ea5174bbe2aaf76cfb74ab249b88b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.42--119.68-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 01:24:28 PST
Source Batch
20260810_155135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 01:24:29.872682+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.