Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
15.1 miles East of Lucerne Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.1 miles East of Lucerne Valley
34.4291°N, 116.7145°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 18:55:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
123.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 16.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f54e4becd15e71d1eb85f33cab3c48b273b7226339e51ee245acc230fe5d435a
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--116.71-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 19, 2026 06:23:21 PST
Source Batch
20260818_172940_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-19 06:23:22.789979+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.