Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.7 miles North-East of Summit Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles North-East of Summit Valley
34.4322°N, 117.3890°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 09:50:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.61
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b7d8d1de9e3a09ef9fc8391c07e006e6f748b45f33299249503d40fd6dbd1db3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--117.39-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 09:27:33.418496+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.