Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.6 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4256°N, 119.1856°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 19:15:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
73.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
54.0 h
6.0 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 0.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
89b7ffced4d66393d8813dac36c5817e7b7327bcfde3d329cfee449c37c8d273
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--119.19-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 21, 2026 09:14:20 PST
Source Batch
20260820_225345_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-21 09:14:21.410407+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.