Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
2.7 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4260°N, 119.2033°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 17:37:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
739e47665697eb4a81e673d9b6cd70f8c9ab64178b04f1e3346b0f03bc03b99b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--119.20-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 06:44:32 PST
Source Batch
20260812_211104_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 06:44:33.065595+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.