Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
6.5 miles West of Goleta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles West of Goleta
34.4255°N, 119.9413°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 19:49:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
45h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
51.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.6 h
2.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b146c2dd3c53cd4d2e75f2f075ad56f29522ddf9fbfc37dce4f7b08d4d6ef140
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.43--119.94-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 22:28:35 PST
Source Batch
20260808_125544_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 22:28:36.604371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.