Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
21.7 miles South of Essex
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.7 miles South of Essex
34.4428°N, 115.1147°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 01:56:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
208.3 km
108.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
22.5 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 18.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
492137e03babe38c4c29dd1b52453ec5b7ac60e707d6255c8f15a4760c82d92d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.44--115.11-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.