Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.3 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4361°N, 119.2248°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 13:51:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2f4dc0f2e4514386b627ef9a00e12df2efc9c1dbbfac1bd1430c3d592bc09325
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.44--119.22-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 07:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260813_215259_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 07:25:42.204268+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.