Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.1 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4413°N, 119.2262°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 19:12:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
59.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.2 h
2.2 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
4167e7fb7191b4c37dbf2f678c68a591649571893e7add661fb7547c6196a9d7
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.44--119.23-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260815_014753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-15 19:12:00.633000+00:00
2026-08-15T22:50:03.824
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00
2026-08-14T17:54:21.395398+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-15 19:12:00.633000+00:00
2026-08-15T22:50:03.824
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00
2026-08-14T21:25:42.305625+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-15 19:12:00.633000+00:00
2026-08-16T11:25:08.495
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00
2026-08-15T11:19:06.630841+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
longitude
-119.2262
-119.2276
"pipeline re-ingest"
latitude
34.4413
34.4374
"pipeline re-ingest"
depth_km
6.4262
1.849
"pipeline re-ingest"
max_magnitude
2.2289
3.1305
"pipeline re-ingest"