Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
0.5 miles South-West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.5 miles South-West of Ojai
34.4426°N, 119.2499°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 19:37:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
60.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.6 h
2.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f836db33e9d4eb2765c3a4f0a4f90ad9757ea0cab108af11b2de98060d5a5f98
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.44--119.25-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 04:22:16 PST
Source Batch
20260814_185123_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 04:22:17.835354+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.