Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.6 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
34.4546°N, 118.4334°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 07:05:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
100.2 km
0.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 0.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
84308117f0c46bad52b3f57031c071b159878da52f3b3b8a755bdd07a6857be5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--118.43-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 07:35:08 PST
Source Batch
20260805_220209_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 07:35:09.256498+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.