Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
5.0 miles North-East of Fillmore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles North-East of Fillmore
34.4534°N, 118.8612°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 04:05:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
137.5 km
37.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 3.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f46768204b51d27c67e86ffc168f70803cedb3ebb0ef64a93074c352ae94f413
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--118.86-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 15:29:55 PST
Source Batch
20260804_055552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 08:15:38.108866+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.