Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.1 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles North-East of Ojai
34.4539°N, 119.2258°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 07:41:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 11.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
96945f132ccabbee24d54085cb189c0f806235d9a962bbb9b7be7cf2291e32c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.23-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.