Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
0.7 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.7 miles East of Ojai
34.4485°N, 119.2309°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 07:45:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
60.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
dfb1704062d2a3c49c0346dc3b2c0d7db32abcca8e30429119843ffefcface48
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.23-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 14:25:36 PST
Source Batch
20260814_115241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 14:25:37.421797+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-15 07:45:54.148000+00:00 2026-08-15T11:23:57.826
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 10:54 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T17:54:21.395398+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-15 07:45:54.148000+00:00 2026-08-15T11:23:57.826
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 14, 2026 14:25 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-14 14:25:36.419474+00:00 2026-08-14T21:25:42.305625+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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