Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
0.5 miles North-West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.5 miles North-West of Ojai
34.4511°N, 119.2500°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 15:17:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4c1af7cd5b899bef58348334f3745f81f7ce90ec9a4bf9ad981eb03a60a461ab
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.45--119.25-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 12:10:52 PST
Source Batch
20260811_023849_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 12:10:52.900230+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.