Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.3 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
34.4628°N, 118.3928°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 23:02:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cec7304868981e957d10be124b3b029d8044b062043419df1b7f3fefdbe0b2d5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.46--118.39-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 01:24:28 PST
Source Batch
20260810_155135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 01:24:29.872682+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.