Permanent Prediction Record

Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude

M3.1

1.8 miles East of Ojai

Original Prediction Parameters

Predicted Location

1.8 miles East of Ojai

34.4577°N, 119.2139°W

Forecast Time Window

16th of August 2026

Aug 16, 2026 06:31:13 PST

Predicted Magnitude

M3.1

Predicted value

Focal Depth

1.8 km

Below surface

Prediction Type

Prospective

Live forward-issued before the event

Lead Time

22h 40m

Advance notice before predicted event time

Location Map

Predicted epicentre

Nearest Recorded Event

⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error

175.5 km

75.5 km over 100 km limit

Time Error

0.2 h

Within 36 h tolerance

Magnitude Error

0.53

Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.6

Depth Error

8.4 km

Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 6.6 km

Nearest Event Location

Integrity & Provenance

Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)

3ba96eda91794e0371051a0fcdc7a2d2dd7063f817e56ff24f88568989e77aef

Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.

Prediction ID

loc-34.46--119.21-t10340

Evaluation Protocol

Model Version

Prediction Type

Prospective

Publication Batch (UTC)

Aug 15, 2026 07:51:02 PST

Source Batch

20260815_154602_prediction_JSON_file.json

First Recorded (UTC)

2026-08-15 07:51:07.588554+00:00

Amendment History