Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.2 miles North of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.2 miles North of Ojai
34.4649°N, 119.2411°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 00:11:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
21.3 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dab73397498c190434a5072d2f4570d53e82e1b30ea34243fb97ec4714e6cc30
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.46--119.24-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 20:05:30 PST
Source Batch
20260812_102545_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 20:05:31.424703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.