Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.0 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles South-West of Agua Dulce
34.4654°N, 118.3885°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 03:09:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
41h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
100.6 km
0.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
14.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 0.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4f7c226285ffe68043e32340eb4b11a4b83b273510800f63248807ee9a72ee67
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--118.39-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 09:24:07 PST
Source Batch
20260806_235136_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 09:24:08.811392+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.