Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
2.1 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles North-East of Ojai
34.4738°N, 119.2230°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 15:44:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
136b7e52eefc3b6dd6e7a3bda6a2fc8ce11960de4cddfd822783901a8e9c3b92
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.47--119.22-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 20:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260813_111912_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 12:55:40.279427+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.